How the West Forced Putin’s Hand

“How the West Forced Putin’s Hand on Ukraine” (and other attempts to inject some reality into the discussion). Katie Halper interviewed me on August 1, 2023; we covered the waterfront. Here is a 19-minute segment.

How Come NATO Ran Out of Ammo?

By Ray McGovern, August 3, 2023

Yesterday evening, after I was invited to speak on RT’s Crosstalk this morning, I did what is for me normal due diligence; i. e., picking the brains of people I trust, and asking them for sanity checks. I emailed three friends with more expertise in weaponry than I.

Below is the email I sent them last night.

“The question is WHY there are not enough artillery pieces or even conventional 155 shells to give the Ukrainians. I have been saying this is a very pregnant question. Please check the following answer I have been giving. Do I have it right? Why no ammo? Answer:

1 – The USSR fell apart 32 years ago.

2 – The remains posed ZERO threat to NATO.

3 – Without the old Soviet enemy, it was DIFFICULT in US and Europe to justify investing in artillery, or even ammo — even tanks were put in limbo for a while.

4 – Even though West portrayed Russia as aggressive power starting (again) in 2014, it takes time to tool up to build enough 155 mm shells (and, also, there is question as to how seriously the West actually viewed the Russian threat even after Feb. 1014).

5 – The Pentagon lacks Vestal Virgins (at least the five who came prepared with enough ammo … er, I mean oil for their lamps), who look ahead and figure out what might be needed — at least for a year or two ahead……

Early this morning, I was grateful to get the following responses:

1 –

It’s a solid answer. We spent 20 years waging low-intensity conflict where artillery was not much of a factor. And we bought into doctrinal notions that placed a premium on precision, not mass.

We forgot how to fight large-scale ground combat. And we lack the ability to rapidly re-tool.

2 –

In our system, the profit motive does not allow for keeping arms manufacturing factories always at a state where you can start up again whenever orders come through. And restarting factories or building them from scratch is not something that can be done overnight. “Just in time” economies are not attuned to state-driven wars of advanced weaponry with their atrocious levels of consumption of – in this case – a commodity, shells, whose profit margin is unattractive.

There are also complex issues of the supply of the raw materials and of other components needed for production purposes. Western armaments producers now care only for profit. Russian counterparts are more integrated into the state and more responsive to the state’s need, and at far more realistic prices and time lines.

To sum up: nobody in the West was “looking forward”, as they say today. Like you, this leaves an element of astonishment.

3 –

You are spot on. 

Biden and Zakaria

CNN’s Fareed Zakaria Interviewed President Biden on July 9, just before Biden left for the NATO Summit in Vilnius. Here is how I imagine the pre-brief of Biden by National Security Assistant Jacob Sullivan went:

+++++++++++++++++++++++

Biden: Fareed is bound to ask me how Ukraine is doing in the war, Jake. What do I tell him?

Sullivan: You need to mention that Ukraine is running out of standard 155 mm artillery shells.

Biden: You told me earlier that this is “a war relating to munitions”. So that sounds not so good. Maybe we should give them more of our own shells.

Sullivan: The Pentagon says we’re low on that ammunition. But we have some 155 mm cluster shells. You already said we could give them those, remember?

Biden: But, that’s all we have?

Sullivan: Well, we also have tactical nukes; and, if push comes to shove, ….  

Biden: Let’s go with clusters for now and see if that works. I’ll tell Fareed.

+++++++++++++++++++++++

And so it goes.

Exceptional Exceptionalism

Biden channels Madeleine Albright’s exceptionalism; only he can “bring world together” (sic). (As delusional as “Russia has already lost”.) Germans know who blew Nordstream. Support for AfD party grows as it exposes US poodles in Berlin who duck the issue.