Wiggle Room in Imminent War with Iran

Will Trump order his “beautiful armada” to attack Iran? The surge in weaponry to the area suggests YES. But John Kiriakou, Larry, and I read some tea leaves that point to an artful way for Trump to “declare victory” without a lot of blood & economic chaos

Possible False Flag Imminent

Watch for the false flag pretext that starts the war with Iran

By Paul Larudee, Feb 19, 2026

Iran will not initiate a war with Israel, the US or anyone else. It hasn’t done so for centuries and it won’t do so now. If no one attacks their territory, they will not attack another’s. Even the covert attacks against Iran by agents and operatives of Israel and the US in January, 2026 were insufficient to motivate Iran to attack those countries, and when Iran thwarted the Mossad and CIA infiltration, Iran took no action against the countries that sent them. For the past 47 years, Iran has shown that it would rather prove that it can withstand illegal sanctions against its economy and attempts to undermine its democracy than to initiate military attacks upon its persecutors. Iran will respond to military force with its own considerable defenses, but it will not initiate a war.

On the other hand, Israel and the US have no qualms about starting a war with Iran, and in fact attacked Iran three times in 2024-25, and again with their proxies and saboteurs in 2026. But in order to destroy Iran, they will typically want to make it appear that Iran is the attacker. That is why they are probably preparing one or more false flag operations, and that is what we should look for as the start of the war.

What will it look like, and how will we recognize that it is a false flag? Iran has promised a massive missile and drone attack in response to any violation of its territory. Anything less, without signs of such violation, is almost certainly a false flag by Israel and/or the US. It can take many forms, and probably simultaneously more than one. Israel can undoubtedly make it appear that their territory has been attacked, and the US can do the same with respect to its bases and naval assets in the region. For the sake of credibility, they will probably supply operatives in Iran with small, short-range missiles that can appear on radar, that will either hit short-range targets in the Persian Gulf, or are timed to make them appear to arrive at destinations in Israel, where other missiles arrive in their place. In either case, remains of Iranian missiles that hit Israel and the al-Udaid US airbase last year can be planted at the it zones as (fake) evidence.

Obviously, the Western mainstream media will spread the fake story to their populations. But as we hear the fabricated news, we should pay attention to what makes no sense. First, if Iran wanted to attack, wouldn’t they want to create their own false flag operation, to make it appear that they are reacting in self defense. Will we see such a pretext on their side? Very unlikely.

Second, Iran knows that its best deterrence is the ability to cause massive damage, with hundreds of missiles and drones striking sensitive installations and infrastructure. Why would they start with a few small strikes? This is an obvious sign of a false flag operation engineered by the intelligence services of Israel and the US, using CIA-trained Iranian expatriates like the MEK or Kurdish mercenaries or other proxies infiltrating Iran, as they have done repeatedly in the past, and most recently in January, 2026.

Of course, false flag attacks can be staged in many places. The fake attack on the USS Maine in Havana harbor was used to start the Spanish-American war, and the nonexistent attack by North Vietnam on the USS Maddox in the Gulf of Tonkin,became the casus belli in the Tonkin Gulf Resolution passed by the US Congress to authorize expansion of military operations into North Vietnam. Similarly, attacks could be staged against oil production facilities in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and/or Iraq, all within short range of Iran.

Iran has of course threatened such installations as part of a defensive reaction, if it is attacked. However, a claim that Iran is initiating such actions against its neighbors should be seen a false flag because bringing additional combatants against itself is the last thing Iran would want to do as part of an offensive operation, which is therefore exceedingly improbable.

I offer this analysis at this time, because when war breaks out, we will be deluged with disinformation. It may therefore be useful to prepare ourselves for the ancient wisdom of Aeschylus that “In war, the first casualty is truth.”

https://paullarudee.substack.com/p/watch-for-the-false-flag-pretext?triedRedirect=true

Ukraine Talks “Difficult but Businesslike”

“Тяжелые, но деловые” “Difficult but businesslike”: Russian chief negotiator Medinsky re trilateral talks. Тяжелые is VERY hard; can be used for being in critical condition. Medinsky’s one-on-one w/Ukrainians. Did he give them an ultimatum? Do read:

Progress at Nuclear Talks with Iran

BREAKING: Breathe easier! US and Iranian officials report progress at nuclear talks today. Iran will return in two weeks w/detailed proposal to address remaining gaps. Garland gives me time for backgrounder on US-Iran nuclear, including intelligence role.

Medinsky in Geneva to Negotiate

Putin’s trusted aide Vladimir Medinsky leads delegation in Geneva to negotiate with US and Ukraine. Russian Dep. Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin & Kirill Dmitriev also part of US team. Galuzin has just blasted Kyiv for undermining US efforts toward peace.

Why War With Iran is Not Imminent or Inevitable

Why War With Iran is Not Imminent or Inevitable: My Take

Ray McGovern, February 16, 2026

When virtually all guests on Judging Freedom have been saying for months that a US attack on Iran is inevitable, and the moderator says it is not a case of IF but WHEN (as in the title given one show this morning: “Just How Imminent is the Attack on Iran”), it becomes recognizably difficult to “turn the battleship around”, as we used to say. Even if more caution were indicated.

So far today, no one has mentioned:

1— Less than 25 percent of Americans want an attack on Iran, acc to very recent polls;

2— US citizens’ support for Israel has plummeted

3— Trump told Netanyahu to pound sand just five days ago. “I insist on negotiations; I made no new agreements with Netanyahu”

4— Does Trump want to start an unwinnable war just months before the mid-terms? With US body-bags? For Israel?

5— Iran CAN close the Strait of Hormuz; in war circumstances, they probably will.

6— Russia and China have not been given the importance they deserve – far from it. For example … I asked a friend/analyst of China for comment earlier this morning; pls see his take in the following:

The strategic implications for the US are critical. The “maximum pressure” strategy is being bypassed by a “maximum integration” strategy between Tehran, Beijing, and Moscow.

China currently imports 1.4 million barrels a day of Iranian oil. The “Persian Fortress” is a matter of national industrial life for China. As Modern Diplomacy explains, “Beijing views the Mossad’s success in penetrating the Iranian interior as a direct threat to its economic interests and its Belt and Road Initiative.” Moscow is careful to exclude a “mutual defense” commitment to Iran to avoid being dragged into a conventional war. Its technical assistance ensures Iran remains a thorn in the side of Western interests, distracting US resources away from Eastern Europe.

The US strategy of isolating Iran is now a dead-end street.As Joe Kawly explained in an article published by Alhurra, “China enables endurance, not escalation… it helps Iran sustain capability while staying below the threshold that would trigger direct US retaliation.” The US is now faced with a Middle East in which the “Axis of Resistance” is now a technologically buoyant front supported by the world’s second-largest economy. As “round two” approaches, any attack on Iranian territory now faces a wall of Chinese sensors and a Russian alliance that has now gone past the point of no return. The Middle East may have officially lost its uncontested airspace. [Emphasis by RM]

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260210-the-new-axis-of-resistance-sino-russian-technological-buoyancy-in-iran/

Optimistic About Diplomacy with Iran

Nima & I talk Iran, Ukraine. I give glass-half-full analysis that Trump will continue to “insist” on diplomacy on Iran. Also discuss different roles of military analysts (enemy capabilities) and political analysts (enemy intentions) in light recent history