Ukraine: Deep Stakes for Putin … and for China

Neither Putin nor Biden Can Afford to ‘Lose’; Houston, We Have a Problem
By Ray McGovern

An interview with The Critical Hour today afforded a chance to expand on “Mearsheimer: Russia Sees ‘Existential Threat’, Must Win” of April 11. https://original.antiwar.com/mcgovern/2022/04/10/mearsheimer-russia-sees-existential-threat-must-win/

Putin is likely to press on with his armed campaign to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine; he seems already to have the wherewithal to achieve that aim. Better still from Putin’s point of view, he possesses an important insurance policy that he has been paying premiums on for two decades — Big Brother President Xi Jin-ping of China is the insurance. 

The growing closeness of the Russia-China strategic relationship had become clear well before the invasion of Ukraine, when — to the surprise of many — Xi decided to give Putin a waiver on Westphalia, so to speak. ( See: https://original.antiwar.com/mcgovern/2021/12/20/putin-has-a-big-brother-in-xi/ ). Xi’s strong support for Russia speaks volumes.

Indeed, in a worst-case scenario sparked by the war in Ukraine, the U.S./NATO might well find themselves facing the possibility of a two-front war with both Russia and China. The most unsettling thing of all is that there is little sign that Biden’s junior-varsity advisers are aware that — partly because of their own misfeasance — the U.S./Russia/China triangular relationship has become pronouncedly isosceles, with the U.S. on the short end.

Tectonic Shift

It is a tectonic shift; an uptick in China saber-rattling off its coast can hardly be ruled out. It may not come to actual military clashes, but — depending on the circumstances — the temptation may grow strong to “do something” to support Russia and warn the U.S. It’s not just a personal Xi-Putin thing (although I do think this plays a role).  Rather, there is ample evidence that Beijing believes that if Russia ‘loses’ to “the West” in Ukraine, China (already the U.S.’s official #1 designated enemy) will be Washington’s next target.

Blinken, Sullivan et al., however, do not seem able to see reality through their benighted lenses colored with the once valid view of the U.S. as THE exceptional, indispensable mover and shaker. This kind of hubris and ignorance can lead to what the Chinese used to call “a no-good end”.

Cracks in NATO

Cracks in NATO and the rest of “the West” are already appearing and will become wider crevices — perhaps canyons — before the Ukraine adventure dies down. I pointed, in particular at the growing misgivings in Germany in the wake of Chancellor Scholz’s snap decision to turn his back on decades of government discretion, which has prevented Berlin from supplying heavy weaponry to other countries at war. Need I remind that there are a host of important reasons why the Germans need Russia more than their NATO partners do. (It’s the economy, stupid!)

In its continuing effort to show U.S. toughness, President Biden announces almost daily that hundreds of millions of dollars more will go to weapons to shore up Ukraine’s ability to fight. But the Russians can be expected to destroy such weapons as soon as they cross the border into Ukraine.  How tough will that look at that point?

Cui Bono? The MICIMATT

Is there a winner here, no matter how the situation in Ukraine evolves? Well, the Lockheed Martins and Raytheons of this world will manufacture and sell still more weapons. Profits will zoom. It’s the familiar gravy train of the Military-Industrial-Congressional-Intelligence-Media-Academia-Think-Tank (MICIMATT) complex.