Ukraine: Deep Stakes for Putin … and for China

Neither Putin nor Biden Can Afford to ‘Lose’; Houston, We Have a Problem
By Ray McGovern

An interview with The Critical Hour today afforded a chance to expand on “Mearsheimer: Russia Sees ‘Existential Threat’, Must Win” of April 11. https://original.antiwar.com/mcgovern/2022/04/10/mearsheimer-russia-sees-existential-threat-must-win/

Putin is likely to press on with his armed campaign to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine; he seems already to have the wherewithal to achieve that aim. Better still from Putin’s point of view, he possesses an important insurance policy that he has been paying premiums on for two decades — Big Brother President Xi Jin-ping of China is the insurance. 

The growing closeness of the Russia-China strategic relationship had become clear well before the invasion of Ukraine, when — to the surprise of many — Xi decided to give Putin a waiver on Westphalia, so to speak. ( See: https://original.antiwar.com/mcgovern/2021/12/20/putin-has-a-big-brother-in-xi/ ). Xi’s strong support for Russia speaks volumes.

Indeed, in a worst-case scenario sparked by the war in Ukraine, the U.S./NATO might well find themselves facing the possibility of a two-front war with both Russia and China. The most unsettling thing of all is that there is little sign that Biden’s junior-varsity advisers are aware that — partly because of their own misfeasance — the U.S./Russia/China triangular relationship has become pronouncedly isosceles, with the U.S. on the short end.

Tectonic Shift

It is a tectonic shift; an uptick in China saber-rattling off its coast can hardly be ruled out. It may not come to actual military clashes, but — depending on the circumstances — the temptation may grow strong to “do something” to support Russia and warn the U.S. It’s not just a personal Xi-Putin thing (although I do think this plays a role).  Rather, there is ample evidence that Beijing believes that if Russia ‘loses’ to “the West” in Ukraine, China (already the U.S.’s official #1 designated enemy) will be Washington’s next target.

Blinken, Sullivan et al., however, do not seem able to see reality through their benighted lenses colored with the once valid view of the U.S. as THE exceptional, indispensable mover and shaker. This kind of hubris and ignorance can lead to what the Chinese used to call “a no-good end”.

Cracks in NATO

Cracks in NATO and the rest of “the West” are already appearing and will become wider crevices — perhaps canyons — before the Ukraine adventure dies down. I pointed, in particular at the growing misgivings in Germany in the wake of Chancellor Scholz’s snap decision to turn his back on decades of government discretion, which has prevented Berlin from supplying heavy weaponry to other countries at war. Need I remind that there are a host of important reasons why the Germans need Russia more than their NATO partners do. (It’s the economy, stupid!)

In its continuing effort to show U.S. toughness, President Biden announces almost daily that hundreds of millions of dollars more will go to weapons to shore up Ukraine’s ability to fight. But the Russians can be expected to destroy such weapons as soon as they cross the border into Ukraine.  How tough will that look at that point?

Cui Bono? The MICIMATT

Is there a winner here, no matter how the situation in Ukraine evolves? Well, the Lockheed Martins and Raytheons of this world will manufacture and sell still more weapons. Profits will zoom. It’s the familiar gravy train of the Military-Industrial-Congressional-Intelligence-Media-Academia-Think-Tank (MICIMATT) complex.

Q and A with Primo Radical

(Ray interviewed: 15-min video and podcast; March 31, 2022)

By Ray McGovern

VIDEO

PODCAST

https://www.primoradical.com/podcast/episode/78f35107/patron-questions-for-ray-mcgovern

At the end of the first episode of PRIMO RADICAL: UNCENSORED, I answered patron questions regarding RussiaGate, the cover-up surrounding Hunter Biden’s laptop, and election interference — including how the NYTimes helped give us four more years of Bush junior. (The full interview can be seen at https://Rokfin.com/PrimoRadical. )

Among the topics of the full interview: How is it that the United States and Russia find themselves on the verge of World War III; why do folks still believe in RussiaGate; NATO expansion; U.S. sponsorship of the 2014 coup d’etat in Kiev (appropriately labeled “the most blatant coup in history”); Washington quitting the ABM and INF treaties; and how the conflict in Ukraine is pushing Russia closer to China, India and other nations peopled by folks who don’t look like most of the rest of us.

MUST-READ Abridged Excerpts From Interview of Ted Postol, Professor Emeritus, MIT, with Robert Scheer

Photo from Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Gist: From the ‘Best and Brightest’ to a ‘Bunch of Ignorant Punks’

For more, see https://raymcgovern.com/2022/03/26/cold-reality-vs-nonchalant-talk-of-using-little-nukes/

Postol: “My grave concern is I know some of these characters who worked for Obama, and who now work for Biden. And I’m sorry to say it—I know it will be considered arrogant to say this—but they are ignorant. Let me be very clear: this is not an accidental statement on my part. They are outright ignorant. And they’re a bunch of—you know, they trained at these elite schools; they don’t know anything, but they think they know things.

I have taught at Stanford; I have taught at MIT; I have taught at Princeton and at Harvard. So I know what a lot of these people are, because they are very privileged—this is of course a generalization; there are certainly some extremely intelligent and thoughtful people among these. But a great bulk of these people are just completely in love with themselves; they are convinced that they know a lot more than they do; they will not listen, they’re not interested in learning—I mean, you try to present facts to them, they sort of walk away from you laughing.

And they are not experts. And it’s not a problem—it’s no problem at all that they are not experts. The problem is that they’re not interested in learning. So, you know, I had this character, a guy named Colin Kahl, he’s the deputy assistant secretary now for policy at the Pentagon. He doesn’t know anything. He was at Stanford, they made him a co-director of the center there. Rude beyond belief. And you know, he tells me at one point, I’m trying to discuss something with him—discuss something—he turns around and he says, I’ve got a job, I’ve got a real job, I don’t have time for this. This is a guy who’s at the Department of Defense, top levels now, possibly advising Biden.

This is the danger. And if we look at the Obama administration, we saw similar dangers. There’s a very interesting Atlantic Monthly article written by a guy named Ben Rhodes. Rhodes was the national security advisor for communications in the White House, and he wrote a totally fraudulent, supposedly government intelligence report that was released to the public about the nerve agent attack that occurred in Damascus in August of 2013.

And it’s very interesting; I would suggest your readers go read that Atlantic Monthly article. Because in his attempt to show everybody what a smart guy he is, he’s revealing that his main objective with Obama, with the president, was to get him to make a decision which would have been a disaster for the United States, but he [Rhodes] didn’t know it. But to attack Syria, before the public outrage from the misinformation people had about that nerve agent attack died down. In other words, he didn’t want the public outrage to die down before he forced or tricked or got Obama to make a momentous decision that would have been a disaster for the United States. A total disaster. [Ironically, it was Russian President Putin who pulled Obama’s chestnuts out of that fire.]

So Rhodes is bragging about in this article about the role he played. That’s a real window that people ought to use to look into the mindset of an individual who basically, through privilege and accident [check out Collegiate School in Manhattan, where he spent his formative years], became a national security advisor with no real knowledge of what’s going on.

So we’re in a dangerous situation. We have a lot of—I’m sorry, because I’m so disturbed by this—we have a bunch of punks, you know, 30-year-old punks who come from privileged backgrounds, claiming they’re experts in policy when they actually do not have the basic knowledge. And they’re advising presidents. And this is not a good professional system. we need to do something about it.

We Will All Be Dead

With respect to why nuclear weapons cannot be used is this: if we use them, we will all die. It’s that simple. And I can explain in much more detail why what I just said is correct. So if they ask the question again, why can’t we use these weapons, the simple answer is: if we do, we are all dead. … These weapons start getting used, and before you know it, it escalates into thousands of weapons being used. It’s just inevitable. It’s inevitable that the catastrophe will not be stoppable. So that is why you really ought to be very afraid that nuclear weapons will be used at a ‘low level’.

The argument about using small nuclear weapons is equivalent to saying, if I create only a small spark in this room that’s filled with gasoline vapors, it won’t be a problem. I think this is not a bad analogy. It’s physics rather than social, but it’s basically the situation. You can’t have a small spark in a room that’s filled with gasoline fumes. It’s not going to be a good outcome.”

END OF EXCERPTS from Robert Scheer Interview of Ted Postol

Note: Professors Postol and John Mearsheimer are from Brooklyn; Robert Scheer and I are from the Bronx. None of us had even heard of the Collegiate School in Manhattan, and could not have afforded to go there in the first place.

As for me, I can still hear the admonition of my Irish grandmother, a seamstress in the employ of a wealthy socialite (and thus able to avoid the infamous Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire), as I went off at age 14 to caddy at a “exclusive” Golf Club. 

“Do you know what the ‘upper crust’ is, Raymond?”

I think I do, Grandma.

“No you don’t at all! Sit ye down, then; I’ll tell ye, because you surely need to know this, going off, as you are, to caddy at that fancy golf course.

The ‘upper crust’ is a bunch of crumbs held together by a lot of dough.”