Ray on The Critical Hour, July 6, 2022
The NATO military alliance, (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization), is now officially confronting a supposed “systematic challenge” from China, as well as “a most significant and direct threat” from Russia.
Asked to assess this, I could do no better than to quote John Mearsheimer:
Russia simply is not a serious threat to the United States. China is a peer competitor. Russia isn’t. If you want to contain China, you want Russia on your side. But instead, what we’re doing is pushing the Russians into the arms of the Chinese.
This violates “Balance of Power: 101”.
Unhinged
I suggested that a dangerous degree of volatility is introduced by the likely assessment in Moscow and Beijing that those advising Biden are unhinged, unable to think rationally, and might be tempted to strike out even more rashly to hide the results of their egregious missteps. It is likely that this has both the Russians and the Chinese on tenterhooks. Will the West think it has to double down in some way, as the Russians advance in Ukraine and the Chinese win more friends and influence more people in the East – in a whole different ocean?
Also discussed were the likelihood of deepening fissures in the West as economic hardships grow under the sanctions. In a recent speech on the floor of Spain’s parliament, member Gerardo Pisarello charged that the NATO summit was organized to enrich the weapons trade and weaken China. Pisarello added:
Increasing the military budget in the middle of a dire social and energy emergency would truly be the act of a pyromaniac.
And, indeed, the ones celebrating wildly are the war profiteers – like BAE Systems. It has had a lobbying triumph with the decision to send a $300 million shipment of M-777 howitzers to Ukraine.
Grim, But ‘As Long As It Takes’
I mentioned the “grim” picture on Ukraine that Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines drew last week, predicting that the war will grind on “for an extended period of time”. That seems certain to be the case unless U.S. policy changes, and nothing seems likely to change before the mid-term elections in November.
At the close of the NATO summit last week, President Biden said that Americans and the rest of the world would have to pay more for gasoline and energy as a price of containing Russian aggression. How long? “As long as it takes, so Russia cannot in fact defeat Ukraine and move beyond Ukraine,” he replied.
Who is telling the president Russia plans to “move beyond Ukraine”? That may be true, but where is the evidence?
Sorry, the Giuliani dictum (i. e., “Lots of Theories, But No Evidence”) does not do if for me. Nor does the putative “Threat Assessment” drawn up by highly paid functionaries at BAE Systems.